CASE STUDY 1 - cont.
Suppose your best estimate is that there is a 70% chance the generator will work if used in its current condition. That is, Pr(WU)=0.70 and Pr(FU)=0.30
You also are convinced of decision that the generator will not fail during the test if it is overhauled [Pr( WO) = 1.00, Pr(FO) = 0.00]. This constitutes Phase I - Estimate the probability of each relevant event occurring. Note that Pr(WU) + Pr(FU) = 1 and Pr(WO) + Pr(FO) = 1. This ensures that we have a complete set of events associated with each design option and that all other events are irrelevant to this formulation of the problem.