DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Phase 1: Specify all the alternatives to be included in the exercise.
Phase 2: Specify all relevant events that might occur subsequent to making the decision, which could affect the outcome of the decision, but over which the decision maker has no control..
Phase 3: Estimate the probability of occurrence of every relevant event specified in Phase 2.
Phase 4: Quantify the outcome of every possible combination of decision alternatives and relevant events..
Phase 5: Use a predetermined decision rule to select the design alternative that yields the most desirable result.